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Housing market in 2022

It’s definitely been an eventful year in property. Many forecasters predicting a recession and house pricing crash, but the Chancellor had a different take on this…

With the introduction of the Stamp Duty Holiday, many residential buyers and investors piled on in and coupled with a low housing stock for sale, which resulted in inflated selling prices.

So how will 2022 pan out?

I must start with two warnings. The first is, if you’ve read my previous emails, I stress that no one knows with 100% certainty, what will happen in the property market, and if anyone does, run a mile! Hence why this is my prediction. The second is that there is not just 1 UK market, there are regional variations, and you can’t base one prediction for the whole of the UK property market.

What do the experts and media say?

  • House prices forecast to rise by up to 3.5% a year between 2022 and 2024 – The Guardian
  • London prices are then predicted to rise by 1% in 2022, then another 1.5% in 2023, before accelerating to 3% in 2024 – City AM
  • The end of the housing boom will be when mortgage rates rise in 2022 – Forbes

I tend to agree with this last statement. I’ve been telling the dentists in my 12-month programme that until interest rates go up, there will be a limited cooling off in the property market. Why are interest rates so critical? Historically, interest areas have never been so low for such an extended period of time.

However, people have short term memories and expect this low interest rate to be normal and continue forever. If and when interest rates do go up, many people will unfortunately struggle to service their mortgage. With ever increasing costs associated with household expenses (especially utility bills), many homeowners will be facing repossession. With a number of properties coming on the market from desperate/motivate sellers, property prices will normally decrease.

Word of warning. It’s never as simple as this, as many variables will affect house prices.

So, to summarise, I have no prediction or keys to the gold chest! Interest rates will be one of the critical factors determining what happens to the UK Property Market in 2022.

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